Bay Area winters have been abnormally dry during La Niña years, but they've also been average and wet. This winter will be an in-between season, with the odds of the winter going one way or the other not being all that great in Northern California and the Bay Area.įorecast maps show the Bay Area's chances of a warmer winter are slightly higher than one that's colder, and equal chances of above average precipitation, below average precipitation, and normal precipitation.ĭata from past La Niña winters informs the rain forecast. NOAA's winter forecast for December 2022 to February 2023 calls for wetter conditions in the Pacific Northwest and drier conditions in Southern California as a result of the continuing La Niña phenomenon. In a region that is severely water-stressed, what does this mean? It was an unusually dry winter due to a La Niña pattern last winter. The National Weather Service's Brian Garcia calls it an unprecedented occurrence. There have only been two previous instances of this in the past 70 years. The next La Niña is not expected to happen until the end of June. La Niña can happen twice in a row, but what US forecasters call a 'triple dip' is unusual.

La Niña is expected to return to the US during December through February for the third straight year, according to the National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration.

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